As polling closed on June 19 in the Nilambur constituency, voters overcame early rain and long queues to deliver votes for one of the most closely watched by-elections ever. Semiotica.ai’s final analysis blends public sentiment, on-ground intelligence, and turnout trends to present a precise and holistic forecast.
🌦️ Morning showers impacted early momentum, but by noon, the skies cleared and voter enthusiasm surged, especially among women, youth, and urban participants. This changed the direction of the election in the second half of the day, impacting final vote behaviour.
📊 Vote Share Forecast (Range/Percentage)
| Party / Candidate | Predicted Vote Share Range (%) |
| UDF – Aryadan Shouka th | 39.8% – 41.6% |
| LDF – M. Swaraj | 34.2% – 36.0% |
| IND – P. V. Anvar | 8.5% – 10.1% |
| SDPI – Adv. Sadiq | 6.5% – 7.5% |
| BJP – Mohan George | 4.4% – 5.6% |
| NOTA | 2.5% – 3.5% |
📊 Vote share Forecast (Vote count)
| Party / Candidate | Predicted Vote Share Range(%) |
| UDF – Aryadan Shoukath | 67,750 – 70,800 |
| LDF – M. Swaraj | 58,200 – 61,200 |
| IND – P. V. Anvar | 14,400 – 17,100 |
| SDPI – Adv. Sadiq | 11,000 – 12,750 |
| BJP – Mohan George | 7,500 – 9,500 |
| NOTA | 4,250 – 5,900 |
🎯 Key Insights
• UDF’s final-day performance benefited from favourable turnout conditions and effective message retention.
• LDF’s vote share softened slightly due to weather-impacted early hours and fatigue among undecided voters.
• P. V. Anvar retained core support but could not expand his influence beyond mid-stage sentiment.
• SDPI showed disciplined growth among youth and online-native voters.
• NOTA attracted apolitical and protest votes, particularly from new voters.
📌 Conclusion Nilambur’s verdict reflects a constituency in transition. While traditional loyalties remain, the impact of weather, voters break away from strict party lines, and strategic voting continues to shape a more dynamic and unpredictable electorate. Although UDF currently has a higher chance of winning according to Semiotica.ai, the final outcome remains within reach for multiple players.
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