As the Nilambur by-election reaches its final stage, new data from Semiotica.ai shows where each candidate stands, how voters are feeling, and what might affect the final result. By looking at online opinions, behaviour patterns, and digital activity, we now have a clearer idea of how this election is shaping up.
🧭 Candidate Risk Map – Sentiment vs Vote Share
Data Source: Semiotica.ai, as of June 12, 2025
The candidate risk map places candidates across two axes: Projected Vote Share (%) and Average Online Sentiment Score (Scale 1–10). It provides an intuitive view of both their quantitative support base and qualitative public sentiment. This scatterplot maps each candidate based on their average digital sentiment score and estimated vote share, offering insight into how perception translates into potential ballots.
The candidate risk map shows that both M Swaraj and Aryadan Shoukath fall in the first quadrant, indicating strong alignment between their online support and actual electoral strength. In contrast, P. V. Anwar and SDPI are positioned in the fourth quadrant, where they enjoy high levels of online sentiment but lack proportional vote strength on the ground. Meanwhile, the BJP remain in the third quadrant, reflecting consistent but relatively low levels of both engagement and voter support.
Voter sentiments, what it means for Candidates?
- Safe Zone: Aryadan Shoukath (UDF) leads with the highest sentiment (7.5) and top vote share (41.5%), indicating strong acceptance and trust. M Swaraj (LDF) shows a slight gap between projected vote share (41 %) and sentiment (7.1), signalling loyal voter strength but a slightly lower emotional connect.
- Silent Majority: No candidates fall here, which means no underdog with high goodwill is emerging.
- Weak Support: BJP’s Adv. Mohan George lie here with limited traction both in perception and share.
- Disruptor Zone: Both Independent Anwar and SDPI’s Adv. Sadiq falls into this quadrant.
📊 Latest Vote Share Chart:
Here’s how the current projection looks across all major players, including NOTA.
What This Means
- Swaraj’s lead appears more locked-in as both sentiment and vote estimates rise together.
- Aryadan’s campaign has stabilized but shows a slight post-June 10 slowdown. Online engagement now slightly favours Aryadan Shoukath, and this emotional connect may help consolidate undecided voters.
- Anwar’s influence may cap at 8–9%, but even 2–3% spoilage can swing the race.
- SDPI’s youth traction may not be large but could disproportionately affect UDF
- NOTA nearing 3% is a concern—potential protest votes that may impact margins.
- A minor swing can create a twist as the vote share differential between UDF & LDF are very marginal. To know more about the potential factors that can create this twist click here.
📣 Final Word
This analysis is the output of Semiotica.ai’s real-time electoral insight engine, using machine learning, NLP-based sentiment scoring, and region-specific behavioral modeling. As Nilambur votes, the difference between UDF and LDF is razor-thin. Each booth, each swing vote, and each digital perception now carries statistical weight. And while sentiment alone doesn’t determine elections, it certainly predicts their direction. In Nilambur, the contest is more psychological than mechanical. Voters are not just choosing parties—they’re interpreting performances, personalities, and disruptions. And while sentiment alone doesn’t win elections, it increasingly sets the narrative.
Stay with us for more real-time insights
Semiotica.ai Data Research Team
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